The Power Shifts Capabilities Index
Building institutions that can keep up
Power Shifts is organized around the idea that institutions fail — and succeed — based on capabilities.
In 2026, each essay I publish explores one capability modern institutions need to operate under continuous political, regulatory, and structural change, and why traditional models struggle to deliver it.
Below is the evolving Capabilities Index — a map of the core capacities that determine whether an institution can keep up when the environment shifts.
1. Power Sensing
Seeing where power is moving before it’s obvious
Modern institutions don’t lose power all at once. They lose it gradually, as influence, legitimacy, and authority migrate elsewhere.
This capability is about:
Detecting power reallocation early
Understanding influence beyond formal roles
Anticipating legitimacy gaps before backlash
2. Judgement Under Certainty
Making decisions without clarity, consensus, or complete information
Most institutional decisions are made under conditions of ambiguity. And yet, most systems are designed for certainty.
This capability is about:
Converting intelligence into judgement
Acting without false confidence
Making trade-offs explicit under pressure
3. Institutional Coherence
Aligning people, priorities, and action at speed
When institutions fails, it’s rarely because people don’t care. It’s because systems fragment judgement cross silos.
This capability is about:
Coordinating across functions
Reducing fragmentation and duplication
Ensuring decisions reflect the whole system, not one part of it.
4. Decision Infrastructure
Designing systems that support judgement, not just activity
Most institutions are well-instrumented but poorly supported. They collect information without designing for how decisions are actually made.
This capability is about:
Prioritization over volume
Jugement-grade outputs
Knowing whether the system is helping or hindering decisions
How to read Power Shifts
Each piece in Power Shifts contributes to one or more of these capabilities. Some essays diagnose failure. Others explore emerging replacements. All are written with a single constraint in mind: whether the idea helps an institution keep up when conditions change.
Public affairs appears frequently because institutional stress surfaces there early. The capabilities themselves apply more broadly, including governance, professional sport, media, and other complex organizational settings.
Why this index matters
The capabilities index exists to support ongoing work, not to classify ideas for their own sake. It provides a way to track institutional modernization over time, revisit core concepts as conditions evolve, and develop a shared language focused on judgment rather than analysis alone.
Over time, Power Shifts will continue to fill in this map, capability by capability.