The Arena Map

A systems approach to regulatory strategy

Welcome to the Power Shifts newsletter. I’m Joseph Lavoie, a partner at Crestview, a global public affairs agency. Each week I share frameworks, playbooks, and case studies on designing effective public affairs strategies. I also explore my longstanding theory that every business is in the business of politics.

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I’ve been doing a lot of reading on game theory this summer. And there’s a concept I came across this week that got me thinking about the complexities of regulatory environments. What makes strategy so challenging in regulatory affairs is that we’re not playing the same game every time we engage in our work. Sometimes we’re playing checkers, other times we’re playing tic tac toe. More often, we’re playing some form of three dimensional chess. And if we’re brutally honest with ourselves, sometimes, it’s impossible to tell which game we’re playing.

Which got me thinking: on any given regulatory or political issue, it’s important to figure out which game you’re playing. And in figuring this out, it’s important to determine which arena this game is playing out in.

As I look back at the more successful engagements I’ve been involved with, the winning teams were rarely those with the most persuasive arguments, or those staffed with the most credentialed experts. They were the teams that understood, in detail, the system in which their fight was unfolding. They knew which game they were playing, and in which arena that game was being played out in.

And when I look back at the less successful campaigns, whether those I was a part of, or those I was on the receiving end of, a consistent error emerges from the rubble: these teams did not know where the real decision was being made.

I’ve seen highly capable teams lose years of market access and seen projects worth hundreds of millions stall, not because they were out-argued, but because they never understood where the real decision was being made.

The problem of invisible arenas

In theory, regulatory processes are transparent: there’s an official body, clear deadlines, and a published path to a final decision. In reality, much of the work that determines the outcome happens elsewhere—in venues not listed on any public schedule, at moments not marked on any official calendar.

This creates what I’m calling the invisible arena: the collection of meetings, pre-briefs, gatekeepers, and informal influencers that shape the official process from behind the scenes. These arenas present a big problem: if you don’t see the arena, you’re playing blind.

The Arena Map

To address this, I developed the concept of the Arena Map. It’s a one-page diagram that captures seven critical elements:

1. The Arena. The actual venue where the decision is shaped. This may or may not be the official decision-making body.

2. The Gates. The critical moments between now and the decision date where influence can be exerted.

3. The Gatekeepers. The individuals with the authority to open or close each gate.

4. The Movers and Blockers. The people who influence the gatekeepers, both in support and in opposition.

5. The Crowd. This is public pressure. The crowd can shift momentum and have the ability to change the game entirely.

6. Access Routes. The mechanisms for reaching the gatekeepers before each gate is crossed.

7. The Escalation Plan. Predefined steps to take if a gate closes.

Why it works

The Arena Map forces an explicit model of the decision-making system, with three direct benefits to an executive team: